Who is Really to Blame for the War in Ukraine?

A History of Putin’s Aggression, and the War in Ukraine

This week marked the third anniversary of the major war begun when Russia launched an unprovoked, full-scale attack on Ukraine. The war has become the largest, deadliest, and most important conflict in Europe since World War Two. Upwards of a million troops have died or been wounded. Multiple Western nations (i.e. the Democracies) are actively supporting Ukraine with weapons, training, sanctions on Russia, and other aid. Multiple authoritarian regimes (Iran, China, North Korea) are actively supplying Russia with economic aid, weapons, and, in the case of North Korea, thousands of combat troops in what we can call the North Korean Intervention.

In many ways, this Russo-Ukrainian conflict is currently the biggest, most dangerous conflict in the world today. Impacts include increased tensions between NATO and Russia; Sweden and Finland joining NATO in direct response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine; and a general increase in European tensions. America under the Biden Administration provided significant, though limited, support to Ukraine, while the new Trump Administration’s approach to this conflict is rather confusing at this point, (voting with Russia in the UN, while reaching agreement with Ukraine on a rare earth minerals deal).

President Trump and other members of his administration have made statements blaming Ukraine for the war. This, of course, is preposterous. The reasons for Trump’s view on this topic is up for debate, but the facts of how and when and why this war began are clear. Here is the history on the question of which nation, Russia or Ukraine, is the aggressor.

The Russian Bear Over Eastern Europe

First, we need to look at the shared history of Russia and Ukraine. From the Russian Empire of the Czars, to the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Ukraine, a Slavic nation, was ruled by Russia. While the Soviet Union was officially a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), in truth it was a brutal dictatorship run by the Communist Party, which was dominated by Russians, who formed the largest ethnic group in the USSR. When the Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine, along with many other “Soviet Republics,” opted out of the Soviet Union and declared independence. During Soviet rule, one of the significant episodes in Ukraine’s oppression by the Russian Communists was the “Holodomor” in which several million Ukrainians were intentionally starved by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Also, from the early 1940s (in World War Two) until the early 1950s, there was an anti-Soviet insurgency by Ukrainians rebels, which was defeated by the Communists. The shared history of Russia and Ukraine is one of Russian/Soviet rule and oppression of Ukraine.

Secondly, a quick look at the wars each nation has been involved in since 1999, to show which nation is the militaristic aggressor, and which nation is not. This date was chosen because that is when Vladimir Putin first took power in Russia. This list clearly shows that Russia, under the rule of the authoritarian Putin, has been very aggressive and militaristic, and Ukraine has not.

1999: Russia engages in the Second Chechen War, in part due to terrorist bombings of Moscow apartment buildings blamed on Chechen militants. It is widely believed that these bombings were “false flag” operations by Putin’s operatives to provide justification for war and an increase in Putin’s power and authority in Russia. He now can claim to be a “war time leader.” Russian forces flatten multiple Chechen cities and commit abuses on the local population.

1999: Ukraine is at peace.

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1999-2009: Russia fights against insurgents in Chechnya and other areas of the North Caucasus region.

1999-2009: Ukraine is at peace.

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2008: Russia-Georgia War. Georgia (another former Soviet Republic) is fighting against Putin-supported separatists in Georgia’s South Ossetia region. The Ossetian rebels have long enjoyed Russian support. Russia invades Georgia in response to a Georgian offensive against the South Ossetian rebels.

2008: Ukraine is at peace.

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2015-2024: Russian military intervention in Syria, purportedly to aid the Syrian regime of dictator Bashir Assad against the Islamic State. The intervention quickly evolved into general support for Assad in the Syrian Civil War (2011-2025). Russian air power and artillery destroyed multiple Syrian cities, committing major war crimes. Russian forces aligned not just with Assad, but also acted in support of Hezbollah and Iran who also aided Assad in Syria. Also, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary army operating as an extension of Putin’s military and foreign policy, was heavily involved in Russian ground operations in Syria.

NOTE: The Wagner Group mercenary forces are known to have deployed (in support of Russia’s overall foreign policy) in the Crimean Invasion, the Donbas War, the Second Libyan Civil War, the current Sudan Civil War, anti-insurgent operations in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mozambique and other third-world hotspots in which Russia has an interest. Tensions between Putin and the late leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, over the conduct of the Ukraine War, led Prigozhin to launch a short, failed rebellion against Putin in June, 2023. Following Prigozhin’s death, his Wagner Group became an official part of the Russian military, being renamed the Russian Expeditionary Corps (REK), also referred to as Russia’s Africa Corps.

2014: Ukraine was at peace with other nations, until Russian operatives seized the Ukrainian region of Crimea in February, 2014.

2014 was a significant year in Russian-Ukrainian relations. From late 2013 to February 2014, Ukraine was wracked by the Euromaidan protests, which pitted the parliament and massive citizen protests against the pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych. Government forces began using violence against the protesters, resulting in over 130 deaths. Protests accelerated and the government of President Yanukovych fell apart and he fled to Russia in February, 2014. Parliament voted him out of office.

At this point, serious protests and instability began in the eastern part of Ukraine, home to a large Russian-speaking minority. At this time, Russian forces seized Crimea, the large peninsula in the south of Ukraine. The Ukrainian military was very unprepared, and the Russian takeover was accomplished with very little real resistance. Russia formally annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014.

To be clear, what happened is that Putin’s ally, President Yanukovych, lost power and was forced to leave Ukraine. Almost immediately, Russia seized Crimea, which, due to various treaties and agreements, still hosted Russian naval bases and the Russian Black Sea Fleet (this naval presence dates back to when Ukraine was ruled by the Russian Czars and the Soviet Communists).

Meanwhile in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively referred to as the Donbas Region), pro-Russian separatists, supported openly by Vladimir Putin and the Russian military, launched a separatist movement and began military operations against the Ukrainian government in April, 2014.

This began the Donbas War (2014-2022), which pitted the Ukrainian military against the Donbas Separatist rebels and the Russian military.

The Donbas War was subsumed into the larger Russo-Ukrainian War when Russia began the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine on multiple fronts on February 24, 2022. It is believed that approximately one million troops (all sides) have died or been wounded since February, 2022. Casualties for the Donbas War through 2022 are estimated at around 14,000. Millions of Ukrainians have become refugees since the fighting began.

While the Russia-Ukraine War is commonly seen as beginning on February 24, 2022 with the massive, full-scale invasion of Ukraine by hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, the reality is that Russian aggression began in February of 2014 when Russian forces seized the Ukrainian region of Crimea in response to Putin’s man in Kyiv losing power in the Euromaidan protests. This was followed only a couple months later with the start of the Donbas War, in which Russia-backed separatists began a rebellion against Ukraine. The Russian military was heavily involved in this war, and this is a part of the larger Russo-Ukrainian War.

To summarize, the Russia-Ukraine War can be divided into distinct phases (all phases began with Russian aggression):

Russia-Ukraine War (2014-Present)

• Russian Invasion of Crimea (February, 2014)

• Donbas War (April, 2014-2022)

• Russian Invasion of Ukraine (February, 2022-Present)

  • Wagner Group Rebellion (June, 2023)

  • North Korean Intervention in Ukraine War (2024-Present)

While Russia was engaged in the Ukraine War, Russian forces (including the former Wager forces), continue to be engaged in wars throughout Africa and the Middle East. Putin’s attempt at global reach continues, though not without some setbacks. The fall of Putin’s ally in Syria, Bashar Assad in December, 2024, ended, for now, Russian intervention there. Even as the Ukraine War raged on, Russian war planes engaged in bombing runs against Syrian rebel forces as they advanced on Damascus in late 2024.

Russian Red Army Bear Image in a War-Torn Background

Putin’s Russia is a hyper-aggressive actor on the world stage. Putin has publicly stated his goal is restoration of the old Russian Empire. Russia’s eastern European neighbors, most of whom were previously enslaved under the old Russian Czarist empire and/or the Soviet Union, including Finland, the Baltic States, and Poland, are understandably worried about Russia. They are working to increase their military readiness as a hedge against a possible Russian attack in the future. The world is at a fragile place in history. If Putin succeeds in taking over Ukraine, or at least is able to impose his version of a peace settlement on Kyiv, he will likely be emboldened to continue his aggression and territorial expansion. The Western world MUST see clearly that Putin is a threat to world peace, and act accordingly. With the new rare earth minerals treaty between the U.S. and Ukraine, the Trump Administration may, in Trump’s transactional worldview, actually do the right thing and help Ukraine resist Russia. But there are still many unknowns in this scenario. One thing to remember, history shows that bullies (i.e. the Hitlers, Mussolinis, Tojos, Napoleons, et al) who see success in their initial aggressions, are emboldened to continue their aggression, to the detriment of all. Ukraine is only one step in Putin’s march to recreate his own version of the old Russian Empire. The world should be worried and be on alert for the Russian Bear.