The State of Military Conflicts in the First Half of 2025: A Global Overview

UPDATE: The United States is now directly involved in the Iran War!

UPDATE (June 21, 2025):

Just as I was getting ready to post this new article on the major wars from the first six months of 2025, the news came that the U.S. has bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities today, June 21, 2025. More info to follow. The U.S. is now an official party to the Iran-Israel War, which is mentioned below in this article. Be on the lookout for Iranian responses, which could include more attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria by Iran and/or the Iraqi Shiite militias and a renewal of the Houthi-U.S. conflict. Stay tuned!

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The original article, pre-today’s U.S. intervention :

The State of Military Conflicts in the First Half of 2025: A Global Overview

As we reach the middle of the year 2025, we see that the first six months of the year significant escalations in several military conflicts around the world took place. These wars reflect an increasingly volatile global situation which continues to involve, in some way, all of the major powers and alliances in the world.

From Europe to the Middle East and South Asia, these conflicts, namely the War in Ukraine, the Middle East War (including the Hamas-Israel War, the Hezbollah-Israel War, the Houthi Conflict, the endgame of the Syrian Civil War, the Iraqi Shiite Militia Conflict with the U.S., and the Iran-Israel War), the Sudan Civil War, and the India-Pakistan conflict, among others, have not only caused significant human suffering but also continue to reshape geopolitical dynamics. This article examines the state of these conflicts, their key developments, and their broader implications as of the mid-point of 2025.

War in Ukraine

The War in Ukraine, which really began in 2014 with Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbass region, escalated significantly with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine proper in 2022. This war remains a grinding conflict with no clear resolution in sight. By mid-2025, Russia increased their incremental territorial gains, particularly in eastern Ukraine, while Kyiv continues to endure an intensified bombing and drone campaign. Western support, particularly from the United States, has been stretched thin due to competing global priorities, due to the escalating Middle Eastern conflict.

While the Russians and their North Korean allies (or would Hessian-like mercenaries be a more fitting term for the NKs?) managed to reclaim most captured Russian territory in the Kursk region, Ukrainian innovations in asymmetrical warfare dominated much of the war news in past months.

These Ukrainian special operations against Russia demonstrated significant tactical innovation, particularly through the use of drone technology and covert infiltration. The most prominent operation was Operation Spider's Web, executed on June 1, 2025, by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). This operation targeted Russian Air Force assets at five key air bases across Russia’s vast territory: Belaya, (in Irkutsk), Dyagilevo (in Ryazan), Ivanovo Severny (in Ivanovo), Olenya (in Murmansk), and Ukrainka (in Amur).

The operation involved 117 first-person view (FPV) drones, smuggled into Russia inside long-haul trucks with retractable roofs. These trucks were parked near the targeted air bases, allowing remote operators to launch the drones.

Ukrainian sources claimed the strikes damaged or destroyed 41 high-value aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and A-50 airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft, inflicting an estimated $7 billion in damage. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers were hit, significantly degrading Russia’s long-range strike capabilities. U.S. officials reported about 20 aircraft hit, with 10 destroyed. Russia had moved many of these bombers away from Ukraine into Russia’s Arctic and Siberian territories to protect them as Ukranian drones and missiles were able to hit most western Russian air bases.

This war, the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two, continues to displace millions and cause tens of thousands of deaths, with both sides committing to protracted warfare. Russian casualties thus far have hit the one million mark, with at least 200,000 of those casualties being fatalities. The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry estimates that 20% of those Russian losses occurred in the first six months of 2025. The war’s continued global impact includes sustained high energy prices, and continued economic pressures worldwide.

With the chaotic foreign policy of the latest Trump Administration, continued American support for Ukraine is a big question mark, though a more unified European response to American flip-flops on Ukraine may take up some of the slack in helping Ukraine. Somewhat surprisingly, the mercurial temperament of Donald Trump may end up helping Ukraine anyway, as Trump has verbally expressed frustration with Vladimir Putin over the past few months.

The Middle East War (2023-Present) [Also referred to as the October 7 War]

Part of the larger Arab-Israeli and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, the current major War in the Middle East pits Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, (and to a lesser extent, Jordan and Saudi Arabia) against an the Axis of Resistance, which includes Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels of Yemen, and various Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq. Also, the apparent conclusion of the long-running Syrian Civil War (b. 2011), brought an end to Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, and a strategic defeat for Russia, one of the Assad regime's prime sponsors.

Let’s look at the most significant wars in the world and what happened in the first half of 2025 in the Middle East.

Hamas-Israel War

The Israel-Hamas conflict, reignited by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 sneak attack on Israel, continues to devastate Gaza. By June 2025, over 55,000 Palestinians have been killed, and 129,000 injured, with 1.9 million Gazans, some 90% of the population, now living as refugees. A brief ceasefire from January to March 2025, mediated by Qatar, facilitated the freeing of some hostages, but collapsed after Hamas accused Israel of violations, providing the Islamist terrorists an excuse to keep control of the remaining hostages.

Israel resumed major offensives in Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Rafah. Hamas’ weakened state, following the war deaths of leaders like Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh, has not deterred its resistance, though its capabilities are diminished.

Israel continues to get bad press in the Western world, especially in the U.S. as the war drags on. For example, The Seattle Times reported pro-Hamas protests in Seattle during Microsoft’s Build 2025 conference on May 19, 2025, where activists clashed with police, denouncing Microsoft’s tech deals with Israel. These protests, which are disruptive and misguided, reflect global tensions over the conflict and confusion among many Western elites over who is actually to blame for starting this war. **New flash** Hamas broke the existing cease-fire and attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.

Hezbollah-Israel War

In 2023, Hezbollah entered the war against Israel in support of Hamas and with Iranian support, beginning a violent period of cross-border combat that forced Israel to fight a multi-front war. Israeli airstrikes, special operations, and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, crippled Hezbollah’s abilities to act as a major player in the war in 2025.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that Israel’s operations decimated Hezbollah’s mid-level command and military assets, reducing the Hezbollah stockpile of an estimated 120,000–200,000 rockets and missiles.

Despite its losses, Hezbollah’s ideological commitment to destroying Israel persists, supported by Iran’s promise to resupply its arsenal. This promise is now severely complicated by the Israel-Iran War that began in June, 2025.

Hezbollah continues to launch limited attacks on northern Israel, driven by solidarity with Hamas and a need to appear relevant in this war, though its political position in Lebanon is at risk due to fears of triggering a more destructive war. Over 100,000 Israelis remain displaced from northern border areas, fueling public pressure on Israel to neutralize Hezbollah’s threat once and for all. It is noteworthy, that as of this writing (June 21, 2025), Hezbollah has NOT increased engagement against Israel in support of Iran. Also, the decimation of Hezbollah by Israel played a significant role in weakening the allied Assad regime in Syria as the anti-Assad rebels launched their final offensive in late 2024.

The Syrian Civil War (The Conclusion?)

In November and December of 2024, Syrian opposition groups, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by Turkish-backed rebels, launched a surprise offensive in northwest Syria that quickly toppled the Assad regime and forced Bashir Assad to flee to Moscow to enjoy protection from his long-time sponsor, Vladimir Putin.

Following Assad’s fall, Israel seized the Syrian side of the Golan Heights buffer zone as a protective measure. Since the fall of Assad, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes targeting former Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAAF) weapons stockpiles, air bases, and the Port of Latakia to prevent Islamic extremists (including Lebanon’s Hezbollah) from acquiring advanced weaponry from existing Syrian stockpiles. The new government of Ahmed al-Sharaa condemned Israel’s actions but did nothing to oppose them, as he publicly sought a peaceful relationship with Israel after literally decades of war with Israel dating back to 1948.

Assad’s fall and Israel’s actions in Syria have moved Damascus out of the orbit of Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. A significant piece was removed from the anti-Israeli Axis of Resistance.

Houthi Conflict

The Houthi conflict, part of the broader Red Sea crisis since October 2023, intensified in 2025 as President Trump launched Operation Rough Rider, a major escalation of existing U.S, British, and allied strikes in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israeli targets since October, 2023 have severely disrupted global trade. The Financial Times reported on May 10, 2025, that UAE-re-exported Chinese drones were used in Houthi attacks on Port Sudan, complicating Sudan’s humanitarian crisis.

The Houthis’ advanced drones and missiles, supplied by Iran, have enhanced their ability to target Tel Aviv, prompting Israeli retaliation. Israel conducted continuing airstrikes on Houthi-controlled ports in May 2025, deploying 15 jets, following a Houthi missile attack on Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport.

In March, 2025, the U.S., with British backing, launched Operation Rough Rider, which was a significant increase in attacks on the Houthi. The U.S. first began anti-Houthi operations under the Biden Administration in order to support Israel and protect global shipping. These U.S.-led attacks on Yemen’s Houthi made a big splash, the U.S. military was unable to destroy or significantly degrade Houthi capabilities. In May, 2025, President Trump made the surprise announcement of a cease-fire with the Houthis. The Houthi said they would halt attacks on shipping, but said they would continue support of Hamas against Israel. This was a clear defeat of American goals in this campaign against the Houthi.

Despite U.S. and allied airstrikes, Houthi military infrastructure remains largely intact. The conflict has reduced Suez Canal transits and container shipping in the larger Red Sea area, driving up global freight costs. The Houthis’ actions, framed as support for Gaza, as well as their defeat of American goals, is a rare victory for Iran’s Axis of Resistance in the current Middle East War.

Iran-Israel War

The Iran-Israel shadow/proxy conflict escalated into open warfare on June 13, 2025, when Israel launched unilateral strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile factories, and military officials. Iran retaliated with waves of drones and ballistic missiles, though most were intercepted. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Iran’s regional proxies, including the Houthis, remain active, but Hezbollah and Iraqi militias are weakened, limiting Iran’s coordinated response. Iran’s shift to launching missiles from central rather than western Iran reflects pressure from Israeli strikes.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions, reaching 60% uranium enrichment, and Hezbollah’s degradation prompted Israel’s aggressive pre-emptive strategy. The fall of Syria’s Assad regime in December 2024 disrupted Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah, further weakening its Axis of Resistance. Despite these setbacks, Iran retains thousands of ballistic missiles and continues to arm proxies, raising fears of a broader regional conflict. U.S. and British support for Israel, including ballistic missile defense deployments by their naval and air forces, has heightened tensions with Iran, which threatens retaliation against U.S. forces. It is to be noted, that, as we saw in the April, 2024 Iran-Israel missile battles, Saudi and Jordanian forces also engage with the Iranian missiles and drones that overfly their territory.

As of this writing, (June 21, 2025) President Trump is publicly mulling over whether or not to join the war against Iran by deploying “bunker-buster” bombs to destroy underground Iranian nuclear facilities.

Attacks on U.S. Forces in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan

The Iraqi Shiite militia umbrella group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), which of course is another proxy for Iran, has been active against U.S. forces in the Middle East, especially since the start of the October 7 War in 2023. From October 2023 to a cease-fire in early 2024, the IRI launched at least 180 attacks (missiles, rockets, drones, and mortars) against U.S. forces stationed in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. With the outbreak of the war between Israel and Iran, the IRI has renewed attacks on U.S. bases. Since June 13, at least five U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq have been targeted by drones and Iranian-made missiles launched by the ISI. All the attacks were intercepted with no U.S. casualties. As of this writing (June 21), no U.S. retaliation is reported. It should be noted that most of the 180 or so attacks in 2023 and 2024 were ignored by the Biden Administration unless these attacks resulted in U.S. casualties.

Sudan Civil War

Sudan’s civil war, pitting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, has claimed over 150,000 lives and displaced 12 million by March 2025. Amnesty International reported in May 2025 that Chinese-made weapons, including drones and bombs, are being used by both sides, often re-exported via the UAE, despite a UN arms embargo.

The Financial Times highlighted a March 2025 RSF drone strike in Darfur, killing 13 civilians, using Chinese drones. The conflict has increased famine, with 25 million Sudanese facing acute food shortages. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have delayed aid shipments to Port Sudan, forcing costly detours around Africa. China’s Belt and Road investments drive its involvement, but its arms proliferation risks prolonging the war. Also, Russia’s Wagner Group, a mercenary force that works for Putin’s government, has also been heavily involved, with Russian aid reportedly going to both sides in this bloody war.

The RSF endured significant military setbacks in 2025. In late March 2025, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recaptured Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The SAF's victory was a major political and military victory, giving them control of the eastern bank of the Nile River and cutting off the RSF's supply lines to the eastern side of the river. The SAF's control of Khartoum also bolsters their claim to be the only legitimate ruler of Sudan.

In June, 2025, the RSF seized control of a major border crossing that links Sudan with Libya and Egypt. The SAF accused the Libyan warlord, Libyan National Army commander General Khalifa Haftar, of helping the RSF in this latest offensive. It is to be noted that Haftar, when his forces fought in the recent Libyan Civil War, received significant support from Russia and the Wagner Group. RSF forces (perhaps with Haftar-aligned forces from Libya, perhaps not), still control large parts of the western and northern regions of Sudan, as this war drags on into the second half of 2025. See my recent Substack Note on this potential development.

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India-Pakistan Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict flared in early 2025 following a major terrorist attack in the Kashmir town of Pahalgam, killing 26 people. This attack, by Islamist Kashmiri rebels opposed to Indian rule in this disputed region, prompted India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. After initial Indian military strikes not only in Pakistani-controlled areas of Kashmir, but inside Pakistan proper, Islamabad responded with air and missile strikes of their own against Indian Kashmir and inside India itself.

A cease-fire agreement was reached, but major tensions remain, and the underlying issue, the status of Kashmir, remains. This conflict, rooted in decades of territorial disputes, risks escalation with global repercussions, since both India and Pakistan each have several hundred nuclear weapons. Also, Pakistan is an ally of China, and in recent years, China and India have engaged in several minor border clashes. The threat of a major regional war involving two of these nuclear-armed nations, or even all three, remains a significant threat.

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Broader Implications

The first half of 2025 underscores a world grappling with interconnected significant conflicts. The Middle East, driven by Iran’s Axis of Resistance and Israel’s very effective military strategy, remains the epicenter of volatility, with ripple effects on global trade and humanitarian crises. Ukraine’s war highlights Russia’s imperial ambitions while Ukraine is showing the world how to fight a much larger opponent, while Sudan’s conflict, Houthi attacks on shipping exacerbate famine and economic disruption. India-Pakistan tensions, though de-escalated, underscores the dangers of conflict between nuclear-armed rivals who hate each other so passionately.

U.S. foreign policy, in President Trump’s already chaotic second term, faces competing demands, with support for Israel straining resources for Ukraine and raising tensions with Iran. China’s dual role as aid provider and arms supplier in Sudan reflects its strategic balancing act. China also is a major supplier of military hardware to Pakistan, and also supports Russia economically and militarily as the Ukraine War drags on. As global tensions increase and military action continues to involve the major world powers, the risk of broader escalation looms, with devastating consequences for the world as a whole.